Commentary

By Eerik-Niiles Kross

        TALLINN — The revelation that Russia’s intelligence services hacked the computer systems of Hillary Clinton’s presidential campaign in what appears an attempt to weaken her in the U.S. election against Donald Trump may seem like the stuff of conspiracy. 

        But the truth is far more alarming. Russia’s activities aren’t part of a conspiracy. They are elements of an openly stated doctrine — a resurrection of Soviet style political warfare, in which intelligence agencies seek to amplify divisions among their enemies, weakening the Western front by sowing discord and dissent whenever the opportunity presents itself.

        The political warfare of the Cold War is back — in updated form, with meaner, more modern tools, including a vast state media empire in Western languages, hackers, spies, agents, useful idiots, compatriot groups, and hordes of internet trolls. The target of the hacks wasn’t just Clinton. Nor is Moscow much interested in supporting Trump (willing useful idiot though he may be). What the Russians have in their sights is nothing less than the democratic fabric of American society and the integrity of the system of Western liberal values.

        Russia is effectively using our democracies and our systems of rule of law against us. The method works like a computer virus. They insert a lie, a false accusation, a fabrication, an illegally-obtained private conversation — some form of kompromat — into our media, competing for ratings and ad revenue, and then they let us tear ourselves apart.

        The hacking of Clinton’s computer systems (and the earlier leak of Democratic National Committee emails) is by no means unique. It is the latest — and most public — in a long line of subversive operations against democratic governments and U.S. allies, including aspiring NATO members and former Russian satellites.

        Leaked tapes in Hungary, Slovakia, Macedonia and Ukraine have contributed to political destabilization. Taped phone conversations by U.S. diplomats about Ukraine were made public at a sensitive time. Similarly, leaked recordings in Poland took down the pro-Western government, allowing the rise of more nationalistic forces less inclined to help lead the European Union through a rocky period.

        There have also been several well-selected, well-timed leaks by Edward Snowden — now residing in Moscow and recently identified by Russian authorities as cooperating with the country’s security services. Wikileaks has been openly connected to Russia’s security services as well, serving as a front for dumps of hacked documents.

        Since 2012, leaked tapes and at times fabricated materials contributed to the fall of pro-Western governments in Georgia and Moldova, forcing Washington and Brussels to endorse oligarchic takeovers to stem further Russian interference.

        These highly effective attempts to create political unrest — only a short selection of a vast array of examples — are connected by two common threads. First, they target Western nations and leaders, aiming to create divisions inside and between them. Second, the West has been slow to stand up for the victims and to identify the perpetrator. Behind all of them — often overtly — is a Russian hand.

* * *

        Shortly after becoming president in 2000, Vladimir Putin signed his first national security white paper, which in no uncertain terms outlined a revanchist worldview, declaring the “world hegemony” of the United States a threat to Russian security. The West continued to believe that Russia is a (sometimes difficult) partner. But from the Kremlin’s viewpoint, the U.S. has remained its glavny protivnik — “the main enemy.”

        The West has been slow to see Putin’s reign for what it is: a KGB takeover of Russia. The security services now operate unrestrained. They are the state. In Russia’s modern hybrid warfare, the Russian military, its diplomacy, its intelligence agencies, its state-run media, its state enterprises — even its sports federations — are part of one machine. And the whole state is conducting subversion operations against the West.

        Russia has been using a playbook developed in the KGB’s Andropov Institute and by other intelligence agencies, a set of methods called “active measures” described by KGB defector Oleg Kalugin as follows: “Not intelligence collection, but subversion: active measures to weaken the West, to drive wedges in the Western community alliances of all sorts, particularly NATO, to sow discord among allies, to weaken the United States in the eyes of the people of Europe, Asia, Africa, Latin America, and thus to prepare ground in case the war really occurs. To make America more vulnerable to the anger and distrust of other peoples.”

        The West has failed to identify the threat or offer resistance because it is collectively stuck, once again, in containment thinking. In the early 1980s, U.S. President Ronald Reagan ended the long period of containment, saying he had a simple policy objective toward the USSR: “We win and they lose.” He inspired a vision that eventually broke the Soviet Union, liberated Europe, and gave Russians a chance to live in a plural, representative democracy where they had the right to determine their own future. They didn’t choose it.

        It is time to honestly assess the battlefield, identify the enemy and yield a concrete battle plan. There is no choice. Putin is not content to stay in his space: He will even reach into U.S. politics when he sees an opportunity. The first step to creating the antidote is acknowledging the poison. We need a new Reagan, a new Chur­chill, a new Truman, to wake us from our reverie and prevent the collapse of the system that gives us our comfortable lives.

        There are many of us Europeans, particularly on NATO’s eastern flank, who see this war, and want to fight for what America helped us build in Europe. We have been waiting for a strong American leader to stand beside us. The next American president must have a clear vision for standing with the alliance of free nations against the illiberal values championed by Putin.

        After two Russian wars against Western aspirants, the West is taking its first cautious steps toward containing Russian aggression. Containment is not enough. And now we see why: Putin’s War has quickly struck at the center of America’s democracy.

        The United States has the luxury of being very far from the front. Unfortunately, information war isn’t geographical — so, America, welcome to the war.

Eerik-Niiles Kross, a member of the Estonian parliament, is the former head of Estonian intelligence.