Commentary

Ihor Medvid

        Very often, Western policies aimed at propagation and support of democratic values find it hard to show solidarity or guarantee security to the country that is struggling for its democratic values. In such moments the role of European and Western democracies becomes sinister, as they start to acquiesce to an authoritarian regime which jeopardizes neighboring countries. The world stays reluctant and passive. It tries to appease the aggressor instead of stopping it, no matter how harsh the method. Doesn’t it remind you of the Munich Syndrome of 1938? I think that it does, and now it has reached Ukraine.

        22 years ago Ukraine signed the agreement, under which three nuclear powers offered their security assurance to Ukraine in exchange for its adherence to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons. As a result, Ukraine gave up the third largest nuclear arsenal in the world. The strategic interests of the parties (excluding Ukraine) were eminently high. For such a radical step Ukraine should have received a substantial amount of support in terms of security and sovereignty guarantees. Well, in theory, Ukraine got the set of security assurances. However, it is now a hot topic whether the memorandum set out legal obligations to the signatories. Do they simply have justification to take actions if something happens in Ukraine, or do they have a legal obligation? In fact, the military conflict in eastern Ukraine fueled by Russian involvement casts a doubt on the credibility of the memorandum and questions security guarantees offered to Ukraine. As it seems today, the world merely turns a blind eye to Russia’s aggression and pays no attention to Russia’s obligations stipulated by the Budapest agreement.

        When the conflict began in 2014, Ukraine was the hot topic on the headlines of the most famous and influential media resources, trusted by billions of people. At first glance, they seemed to be condemning Russia and Putin in particular for what he had done. The breach of the memorandum by Russia was under media scrutiny. But since then, the media has gradually shrunk the number of articles about Ukraine. As a result, it affected public opinion. People started to talk less about Ukraine. Most of the world leaders started to show their reluctance to conflict resolution. 

        Whatever the problem, there is always a solution. So can Ukraine bring back world attention to the importance of the Budapest memorandum? The answer is yes. There are several ways to achieve this. And the first initiative that should be considered and implemented is an increase of public awareness regarding Russia’s aggression in the east of Ukraine. More precisely, the people should be constantly reminded that the annexation of Crimea and intervention in the Donbas and Luhansk regions are illicit acts carried out by Russia, which shouldn’t be ignored by the world community. Russia has been denying its implication in atrocious crimes in Crimea and eastern Ukraine. Russian powerful propaganda machine brainwashes the society globally.  However, all the doubts can be easily wiped out when one pays attention to the origin of the ammunition and the machinery that was deployed during the Crimean crisis and being actively used in the eastern Ukraine conflict. The APCs and the BUK missile systems were found to be made by and crossed the Ukrainian border from the Russian side. Moreover, who could those “little green men” be, if they were speaking pure Russian? Russian involvement in destabilization processes is obvious, but unfortunately not to everyone.

        In accordance with the Ukrainian constitution, the issues regarding territorial integrity (if they exist) must be considered in a nationwide referendum after approval by parliament. That is why the Crimean referendum has no legal validity since it ignored constitutional norms. Intervention in the Donbas is an even worse proposition as it has already taken lives of more than nine thousand people while forcing more than two million people to leave their homes. In both cases, the Memorandum articles have been ignored by Russia. And in both cases, the world should stay informed and know the truth.

        The international community should take into consideration the most devastating repercussion of Russia’s aggression in Ukraine - the cost to the people. In the current destabilized situation in Crimea and eastern Ukraine, the lives of people are threatened. Many have been killed whereas millions of civilians are forced to move out because of destroyed infrastructure and direct threat to their lives and the lives of their families. Hence, a lot of people are now seeking emigration opportunities which, of course, causes inconveniences to recipient countries as well. But still, it mostly hurts Ukraine. The war is inhumane. The annexation of Ukrainian territory is also inhumane. People are suffering. Their rights are simply violated. And that should be the very first and most important sign for the international community to act immediately.

        Let us ask ourselves a question. Is there any way Ukraine can bring back world attention to the Budapest memorandum and significance of its compliance? Well, obviously, there are some.  The first one is radical, quite controversial and less likely to happen in the current situation, given the constant pressure on Ukraine and indecisiveness of the government. And this is about the restitution of the nuclear status. Russia has already breached the norms of the Memorandum as we can notice from what was mentioned above. That basically means that the treaty has no longer any legal power. Logically, Ukraine can act the same way. If the signatories of the Memorandum omit the significance of the Memorandum by virtue of their own ambitions and interests, whilst Russia merely ignores the idea of ethics and humanism, not to mention the essential principles of international law, the provisions of the CSCE treaty and the UN Charter, then what restrains Ukraine from taking this aggressive and provocative position?

        The second scenario is rather liberal and a bit more diplomatic. If we examine the content of the treaty we can come to the conclusion, that the US, the UK, and Russia didn’t actually make a military commitment to Ukraine if there were to be a direct threat to its territory or sovereignty (except those, with the use of nuclear threat). Moreover, none of the signatories have ratified the treaty, which means that the Memorandum has been adopted in more limited terms. Even though the memorandum seems to be controversial regarding the signatories’ commitments to Ukraine, it doesn’t mean that the treaty is just a piece of paper and has no legal power. One of the ways Ukraine can request the parties to reaffirm their commitments is by lobbying its interests in the UN Security Council. Ukraine has to be pushing its interests and putting the pressure on the members of the UNSC. Ukraine will also continue appealing to the International Criminal Court in the Hague, which it actually started in 2015. By defending its interests internationally and building up a constructive dialogue with the parties of the memorandum, Ukraine can count on their assistance despite the double standards that besmirch current international relations. Those countries should understand that Ukraine is quite a valuable asset for them, given Ukraine’s economic potential and important geopolitical role in the region.

        In order to achieve this, Ukraine must boost public involvement. It should be done locally and globally. Firstly, Ukraine needs to engage independent media resources that are not controlled by oligarchs. Secondly, Ukraine has to form public opinion abroad by engaging Ukrainian communities and diasporas (Canada will be the brightest example here). An important role in this matter will also be played by the work of well-organized diplomatic offices and consulates. Eventually, it boils down to the formation of public opinion. It is well known that public opinion can influence the state’s policy. As a result, it may bring back the attention of the masses, organizations, and governments to Russia’s uncivilized actions in Ukraine.

Ihor Medvid is a student at the Ivan Franko National University in Lviv, Ukraine