Is Russia winning the war? ‘Meat grinder’ leaves Ukraine on brink Western allies have provided
Storm Shadow missiles in a bid to stem the advance that has left Ukraine at its most vulnerable
since the start of the war
Steven Swinford, Political Editor | Oliver Wright, Policy Editor
Thursday November 21 2024, 8.30pm GMT, The Times
The briefing from Defence Intelligence was typically understated. “Russian territorial advances in Ukraine have accelerated through 2024,” it said. “This has been underpinned by the Russian leadership’s tolerance for casualties, and Russia’s land forces’ quantitative overmatch relative to the Ukrainian armed forces. The front line is now less stable than at any point since the opening stages of the conflict.”
Translated into layman’s terms, Russia is making significant gains and Ukraine is in a weaker position than it has been at any point since the start of the war. The Russian “meat-grinder” — or as officials at the British government agency put it, its “tolerance for casualties” — is having an effect.
More than 700,000 Russian personnel have been killed or injured, while 3,500 tanks have been lost along with 7,500 armoured vehicles. But despite the losses, the Russians keep coming. Data released by the Institute for the Study of War shows that Russia has gained almost six times as much territory this year as it did last year and is advancing towards key logistical hubs in the eastern Donbas region.
The decision by the West to step up support has been driven by the brutal reality of what is happening on the front line. Sir Keir Starmer has been pushing the US to lift its veto on allowing Ukraine to use Storm Shadow missiles against targets in Russia since he entered No 10.
The US lifted that veto just under a week ago after North Korea’s decision to join the conflict. The involvement of 10,000 North Korean soldiers was viewed as a major escalation. Within days Ukraine had used US-supplied and British-supplied long-range missiles on targets in the Kursk region as it attempts to hold on to the territory it gained in a surprise attack earlier in the year.
The Storm Shadow missiles will not change the course of the conflict. Matthew Savill, the director of military sciences at the think tank Rusi, said: “The impact of Storm Shadows will be fairly limited and largely focused around Kursk. These are a scarce resource, they [Ukraine] are husbanding them.”
However, the Ukrainian gains in Kursk are likely to become a key bargaining chip in any negotiations once Donald Trump takes office, especially given the steady erosion of Russian territory in the east.
“They [the US] will be looking at the data from the behind the scenes and know that this looks grim for them,” Savill said. “We’re not talking about collapse, but there is the risk of imminent withdrawal and losing even more territory. In the past month the rate of Russian progress has accelerated. The Ukrainians are exhausted. They can’t pull units off the line, they are physically tired and mentally fatigued. There is no respite.”
The decision by the US to supply Ukraine with anti-personnel mines represents an attempt to help Kyiv hold the line before Trump’s presidency. Much will depend on the weather this winter. Savill said that Ukraine would be hoping for a relatively mild winter because muddy conditions would stymie the progress of Russian forces. If it is too cold, the ground will freeze, making advances by Russia more straightforward.
Even if Trump is successful in brokering ceasefire talks, there is no guarantee that Russia or Ukraine will co-operate. If anything, Russia’s interest is in dragging out the conflict so it can grind out more gains.
Savill said: “They [Russia] have shown a high degree of willingness to take pain. Putin is willing to take gambles. He is on a winning streak and he is building up his pot. Why would he cash his chips now? Ukraine is in a weaker position than at any point in the conflict. Russia is making gains and accumulating advantages in a number of places. It’s pressure everywhere.”
Steven Swinford joined The Times as deputy political editor in July 2019 and became political editor in February 2021. He was previously deputy political editor at The Daily Telegraph and a reporter at The Sunday Times. Steven was shortlisted for political reporter of the year at the National Press Awards in 2018, 2019 and 2020.
Oliver Wright who is Based in Westminster leads The Times' coverage of government policy with a particular focus on Brexit. A former health correspondent and news editor at The Times, he was previously the political editor of The Independent.
